UK Beats Growth Forecasts, Fresnillo Triples Profit and M&A Surges 250%

Read time: approximately 5 minutes

Beneath a week of mixed market sentiment, three stories emerged that deserve the full attention of every investor who is thinking carefully about where genuine value is being created in Britain right now. The ONS confirmed that the UK economy grew 0.4% in Q2 2026, beating City forecasts and delivering 1.2% annual growth that keeps Britain firmly among the strongest-performing major economies in the world. Fresnillo, the world's largest primary silver producer and a FTSE 100 stalwart, reported the strongest first-half financial performance in its 18-year history as a public company, with profit more than tripling and revenues up 74.7%. And UK mid and small cap equities outperformed their large cap peers by nearly five percentage points last week, as a wave of foreign and private equity takeover activity running at 250% above prior-year levels confirmed what overseas buyers have understood for some time: UK assets are attractively valued, and the smart money is moving to acquire them before that discount closes. At Oros Consultancy, this week tells a story we have been articulating to our clients throughout 2026. Here is our full read.

UK GDP Grows 0.4% in Q2, Beating Forecasts as Services and Construction Advance

Thursday 13 August brought the ONS's first estimate of Q2 2026 GDP, and the headline was unambiguously positive. The UK economy expanded 0.4% in the second quarter, matching analyst expectations and delivering annual growth of 1.2% compared with the same period a year ago. The result keeps the UK among the strongest-performing economies in the G7, with the IMF having upgraded Britain's full-year growth forecast to 1.0% in July, making it the only G7 economy to receive an upward revision in the latest round of assessments.

The composition of the growth is as important as the headline number. Services output rose 0.5%, led by information and communication up 2.7% and professional, scientific and technical activities up 1.7%. Construction output grew 0.3%, supported by gains in both new work and repair and maintenance. June monthly GDP came in at 0.3%, beating expectations for a flat performance, with the ONS noting that World Cup spending and a summer heatwave contributed to buoyant activity across arts, entertainment and hospitality. GDP per head rose 0.4% for the quarter and is now 1.0% above the same period a year ago.

Liz McKeown, Director of Economic Statistics at the ONS, set out the picture with characteristic precision:

"Growth slowed in the second quarter of the year, following a strong start to 2026, but remained relatively robust. Services were once again the main driver of growth, while production was broadly unchanged and construction also grew." — Liz McKeown, Director of Economic Statistics, ONS Source: GB News

New Chancellor John Healey, who inherited the figures from his predecessor following Andy Burnham's arrival in Downing Street last month, responded to the release with a direct statement of intent:

"I know people are worried about the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on their cost of living, which has been too high for too long and it has added pressure on British businesses. This is an active, hands-on government, putting British interests first, giving breathing space to those feeling the strain, making our country more resilient and bringing hope back." — John Healey, Chancellor of the Exchequer Source: GB News

The two consecutive quarters of above-consensus growth, Q1 at 0.6% and Q2 at 0.4%, represent the strongest back-to-back quarterly performance the UK has delivered since 2021. For investors in UK private markets, the significance is practical rather than symbolic. A growing economy means growing business revenues, growing demand for property, growing appetite for essential services, and a Bank of England that has more room to begin cutting rates before the year is out. All of those dynamics are directly positive for the kinds of investment opportunities Oros Consultancy presents to its clients.

🔗 ONS Q2 2026 GDP first estimate

🔗 Full GDP analysis via BabyPips

Fresnillo Reports the Best First Half in Its 18-Year History as a Public Company

The week's most striking set of corporate results came on Monday 4 August when Fresnillo, the Mexico-focused silver and gold miner that has been listed on the London Stock Exchange since 2008, published its H1 2026 interim results. The numbers were exceptional by any measure. Revenue rose 74.7% to £2.52 billion (US$3.38 billion). Gross profit surged 131% to £1.76 billion. EBITDA nearly doubled, rising 113% to £1.75 billion, with the EBITDA margin expanding by 12.6 percentage points to 69.5%. And profit for the period more than tripled, jumping 213% to £1.09 billion. The board more than doubled its interim dividend in response.

Chief Executive Octavio Alvídrez described what the results represent for the business:

"Fresnillo delivered an exceptional financial performance in the first half of 2026. Through a combination of solid operational execution and cost discipline, we continued to capitalise on the historic strength of precious metals prices. Our full-year production guidance remains unchanged, and our high-margin portfolio puts us in a strong position to capitalise on ongoing market tailwinds." — Octavio Alvídrez, Chief Executive Officer, Fresnillo Source: Financial News London

Chief Financial Officer Mario Arreguín placed the results in their longer-term context with equal directness:

"This has been an exceptional first half 2026 for Fresnillo. The first half represented the company's strongest first-half financial performance since its initial public offering 18 years ago." — Mario Arreguín, Chief Financial Officer, Fresnillo Source: Yahoo Finance Earnings Call Highlights

The drivers of this performance are worth understanding clearly. Silver prices averaged approximately £45 per ounce in H1 2026 and gold reached historic highs above £3,300 per ounce, driven by the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, the Middle East conflict and the structural shift of institutional capital into physical precious metals as an inflation hedge. Fresnillo's unique position as the world's largest primary silver producer, with a portfolio of high-margin mines and a balance sheet holding £1.86 billion in cash, means it has been able to capture that pricing environment with exceptional operational leverage.

For investors at Oros Consultancy, the Fresnillo results are a vivid illustration of something we discuss regularly with clients: the role that physical and real asset-backed investment plays in a well-constructed portfolio. When inflation is elevated, when geopolitical uncertainty persists and when paper assets face headwinds, the businesses and assets that are grounded in tangible, real-world value tend to perform with remarkable consistency. That principle applies as directly to gold and silver mining as it does to the property-backed and asset-secured investments we present to our clients.

🔗 Fresnillo H1 2026 interim results via Financial News London

🔗 Full results analysis via Mining.com

UK Takeover Activity Runs at 250% Above Prior-Year Levels: Foreign Capital Knows a Bargain

The third major story of the week came from the UK mid and small cap equity market, where a wave of M&A activity has pushed takeover volumes to levels that are, by the standards of any recent year, extraordinary. According to analysis published this week, the UK has now seen over £47.7 billion (US$60 billion) of takeover activity in 2026, with foreign and private equity buyers consistently drawn by a valuation discount that makes UK assets look exceptionally cheap relative to their global peers. Takeover volumes are running approximately 250% above prior-year levels. The buyers are overwhelmingly overseas: US private equity houses, European strategic acquirers and Asian corporates.

The valuation context explains the buying behaviour with clarity. The one-year forward price/earnings multiple for UK mid and small cap stocks stands at 11.6 times, compared with 18.6 times for global equities. That 7-point valuation discount is not being ignored by sophisticated capital allocators, who are buying British businesses at scale and at pace precisely because the gap between intrinsic value and market price is as wide as it has been in a generation.

The Simplicity Wealth market review for the week to 10 August 2026 captured the dynamic with notable directness:

"The earnings and economic data suggest that the UK economy is in better shape than the persistent valuation discount implies. This is a message that overseas acquirers appear to have received more clearly than the public market." — Simplicity Wealth, Market Review, 10 August 2026 Source: Simplicity Wealth

UK mid and small cap stocks gained 2.4% last week while large caps rose just 0.5%, with the outperformance driven by a combination of M&A activity and a broadly constructive domestic earnings backdrop. The July Services PMI rebounded sharply to 52.1 from a contractionary 48.8 in June, providing further evidence that the UK economy is in considerably better shape than the persistent discount suggests. Companies in housebuilding, retail, insurance and financial services generally met or beat expectations in the current reporting season, with several upgrading their full-year guidance.

For investors at Oros Consultancy, the M&A story this week carries a message that is both important and urgent. When overseas buyers are acquiring UK businesses at 250% of the previous year's pace, it is because they have looked at the valuation gap and concluded that British assets are materially underpriced relative to their long-term intrinsic value. The same logic applies with direct force to the private market opportunities we present to our clients. Well-run businesses in non-cyclical, essential service sectors, acquired through disciplined buy-and-build strategies ahead of institutional consolidation, represent precisely the kind of value creation that foreign capital is currently pursuing at scale in the public markets. The difference is that in private markets, that opportunity is accessible at terms that have not yet been repriced by a competitive bidding process.

🔗 UK M&A activity and mid-cap performance via Simplicity Wealth

🔗 Walker Crips weekly market commentary, 11 August 2026

What This Week Tells Us About the Investment Case Right Now

Three stories, three distinct asset classes, and a single consistent message: Britain's economic fundamentals, corporate earnings and the valuation of its assets are all more compelling than the headline uncertainty of recent months suggests.

The ONS confirmed two consecutive quarters of above-forecast economic growth, with services, construction and the digital economy all contributing positively. Fresnillo delivered the best first-half financial performance in its 18-year history as a listed company, generating a 213% jump in profit by combining operational discipline with the exceptional pricing environment created by investor demand for tangible, real-world assets. And overseas buyers, armed with significant capital and a clear-eyed assessment of UK valuations, are acquiring British businesses at 250% of the previous year's pace, drawing the mid and small cap market sharply higher in the process.

At Oros Consultancy, our investment philosophy is built on the same foundation that each of these stories illustrates. We look for investment opportunities where the return is grounded in structural, non-discretionary demand rather than economic optimism. We identify businesses in sectors that generate revenues because they have to, not because the economy is doing especially well. We present fixed income instruments with contractually defined returns, secured against tangible assets. We identify buy-and-build strategies in fragmented, essential service industries where well-run businesses can be acquired ahead of institutional consolidation and create meaningful value through operational scale. We work with tax-efficient structures that protect and compound our clients' wealth intelligently over time. And we present every opportunity with the transparency and rigour that institutional-grade investment requires.

The M&A wave sweeping through UK mid and small cap equities this week is the clearest possible signal that sophisticated, well-capitalised investors have looked at British assets and concluded they are worth more than the public market currently reflects. The investors who have been positioned in well-structured UK private market opportunities ahead of that repricing will benefit most from what follows. For those who have not yet taken that step, the logic for doing so has rarely been more plainly demonstrated than it has been this week.

The Week at a Glance

The ONS confirmed UK Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.4% on Thursday 13 August, beating City forecasts, with annual growth of 1.2% and June monthly growth of 0.3% ahead of the flat performance that had been expected. Source: ONS

Fresnillo published H1 2026 interim results on 4 August confirming the strongest first-half financial performance in the company's 18-year history, with revenue up 74.7% to £2.52 billion, profit up 213% to £1.09 billion, and the interim dividend more than doubled. Source: Financial News London

UK takeover volumes are running 250% above prior-year levels in 2026, with £47.7 billion in deals completed to date, as foreign and private equity buyers consistently target UK mid and small cap equities trading at a 7-point forward P/E discount to global peers. Source: Simplicity Wealth

For investors looking to understand how these developments translate into tangible, well-structured private market opportunity, we would be delighted to have a conversation.

About Oros Consultancy

Oros Consultancy helps high-net-worth individuals access institutional-grade investment opportunities across fixed income, private equity, physical assets and tax-efficient structures. We take the time to understand your circumstances and present opportunities that are genuinely aligned with your long-term financial objectives.

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